How Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Over Ukraine
Reports of an impending American-Russian presidential meeting have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he intended to meet Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A initial get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been called off, as well.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump informed reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I will observe what transpires."
- Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs White House empty-handed
The on-again, off-again summit is another twist in Trump's attempts to mediate an end to war in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release agreement in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in Egypt recently to celebrate that truce deal, the president addressed Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get Russia done," he said.
However, the conditions that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing several years.
Less Leverage
Per the lead negotiator, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's move to strike Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump leverage to pressure Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
The US president gained from a history of supporting Israel dating back to his initial presidency, including his decision to relocate the US embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a situation that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.
Combine Trump's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to secure an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, Trump has much less influence. In recent months, he has swung between attempts to pressure the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has threatened to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that doing so could harm the global economy and further escalate the conflict.
Meanwhile, the president has criticized openly Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending weapon deliveries to the country - then to back off in the wake of worried European partners who caution a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the whole area.
Trump often boasts about his ability to sit down and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the war any closer to a resolution.
The Russian president may in fact be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.
In July, Putin agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties backed by GOP senators. That legislation was afterwards put on hold.
Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously shipping long-range missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the Russian leader called Trump who then touted the potential summit in Budapest.
The next day, Trump welcomed Zelensky at the White House, but departed without agreements after a allegedly strained discussion.
The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by the best of them, and I came out really well," he remarked.
But the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the sequence of events.
"As soon as the matter of advanced weaponry became a little further away for us – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he said.
So, in a short period, the president has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to surrender the entire Donbas region – even territory Russia has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately decided on advocating a ceasefire along present frontlines – a proposal the Russian government has rejected.
On the campaign trail previously, Trump vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since abandoned that commitment, admitting that concluding the hostilities is proving harder than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his power – and the challenge of finding a framework for peace when neither side desires, or is able to, give up the fight.