UK Diplomats Cautioned Regarding Military Action to Topple Robert Mugabe
Newly disclosed papers reveal that the Foreign Office advised against British military action to overthrow the then Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "viable option".
Government Documents Reveal Deliberations on Addressing a "Depressingly Healthy" Dictator
Internal documents from the then Prime Minister's government indicate officials weighed up options on how best to deal with the "depressingly healthy" 80-year-old dictator, who refused to step down as the country descended into violence and economic chaos.
Following the ruling party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK participated in a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Downing Street asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential options.
Isolation Strategy Deemed Ineffective
Officials agreed that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and building an international agreement for change was failing, having failed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.
Options outlined in the files included:
- "Attempt to remove Mugabe by force";
- "Implement tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and shuttering the UK embassy; or
- "Re-engage", the option advocated by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.
"Our experience shows from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that altering a government and/or its bad policies is almost impossible from the outside."
The diplomatic assessment dismissed military action as not a "realistic option," adding that "The only candidate for leading such a armed intervention is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be willing to do so".
Cautionary Notes of Heavy Casualties and Legal Hurdles
It cautioned that military involvement would result in significant losses and have "serious consequences" for British people in Zimbabwe.
"Barring a major humanitarian and political disaster – resulting in massive violence, significant exodus of refugees, and regional instability – we assess that no African state would support any attempts to remove Mugabe forcibly."
The paper continues: "We also believe that any other international ally (including the US) would authorise or participate in military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an authorising Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."
Playing the Longer Game Advocated
The Prime Minister's advisor, a senior official, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "will be a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been ruled out, "we probably have to accept that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-engage with Mugabe.
Blair appeared to agree, writing: "We should work out a way of revealing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then afterwards, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a clear understanding."
The departing ambassador, in his final diplomatic dispatch, had recommended cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "would likely be appalled given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".
Robert Mugabe was ultimately removed in a military takeover in 2017, at the age of 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure the South African president into joining a military coalition to depose Mugabe were strongly denied by the former UK premier.
